Publications
Research and analysis produced by the DFO team and built directly on the data in the DFO knowledge graph.
The Great Reversal: Multilaterals Step up Finance to Developing Countries as China Steps Back
For the first time since 2000, more money is flowing out of developing countries than into them. Drawing on DFO's matched creditor-debtor data, the report finds that in 2023, 38 low-income countries paid more in debt service than they received in new disbursements, while aid grants fell to a record-low 22% of total flows. The conventional picture of development finance — focused on gross commitments — obscures a reversal that has been building for years.
Priced Out: The Rising Cost of Borrowing for Low- and Lower-Middle-Income Countries
Since COVID and the Ukraine war sent global rates to multi-decade highs, the cost of borrowing for developing countries has surged across every creditor type — the average for African countries nearly doubled between 2020 and 2024. Countries like Kenya, Ghana, and Senegal, caught between full concessional protection and market access, bore the sharpest squeeze: when they turned to bond markets instead of multilateral lenders, they paid $22–$61 more per $100 borrowed. The paper calls for expanded MDB lending, faster debt restructuring, and protecting IDA — arguing these are now essential, not optional.